Vehicle ownership and use forecasting in low income countries.

This study analyses trends in road vehicle ownership and use in low income countries (ie those with GNP of less than US$3000 per capita in 1986). It develops a suitable data base from published sources and, set against the background of previous work in the area, analyses the main determinants of car ownership and use. The analysis is based upon established quasi-logistic modelling techniques to encompass non-linearities in the key relationship between vehicle ownership and income levels. A similar exercise is conducted for commercial vehicles. This analysis then forms the basis for forecasting future, medium term trends in vehicle numbers. Additionally, for a limited number of countries, an analysis of the fuel consumption of the transport sector is conducted linking this to both the price of fuel and the growth in vehicle stocks.