Long-term forecasts of road traffic fatalities in the European Union

General methods and results
Stipdonk, H.; Wesemann, P.
This report describes methods to forecast road crash fatalities. The methods were used in two European Union studies, Impact Assessment and ASSESS. These studies were both carried out in 2005. This report describes the general method, compares the applications in the two studies and presents the results. The general method is based on predictions of the overall risk, i.e. the ratio between the total number of fatalities and the total distance travelled (the mobility). Both studies calculate the future total number of fatalities by forecasting risk and mobility separately. By multiplication of future risk and future mobility we obtain the expected total number of fatalities. In both studies, SWOV used structured time series analysis (state space analysis) to assess future risk. In the Impact Assessment the future mobility was estimated with a state space approach as well, while in ASSESS the future mobility was estimated with the use of economic growth models by other partners in the consortium. Therefore the results of both studies are different. The forecast in the Impact Assessment was made in order to assess the feasibility of the target of the Road Safety Action Programme, halving the number of road deaths by 2010. The forecast presumes that no additional efforts will be made to reduce the number of fatalities; this is called the 'business as usual' scenario. The gap between the target and the predicted number of fatalities in 2010 should be bridged by the Road Safety Action Programme. In ASSESS, four scenarios are considered. One of them, the 'most likely' scenario, is comparable to the expected development in the Impact Assessment. The other three scenarios differ in the expected mobility growth, and in the supposed safety measures taken. The effect of safety measures was taken into account by estimating a risk reduction for every safety measure to be considered. This risk reduction led to a new value of the predicted risk. The assessment of the effect of changes in mobility is straightforward (we multiplied the risk and the new values for the mobility).
Gepubliceerd door
SWOV, Leidschendam


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