How effective are demerit point systems and progressive penalty systems in preventing risky road user behaviour?

Demerit point systems may improve road safety, but if the probability of detection is small or if it diminishes, the effect will be short-lived. This becomes apparent from a meta-analysis of 24 European and non-European studies [55]. This showed an initial decrease of the number of road crashes, road deaths and road injuries by 15% to 20%, but after a year and a half this decrease was no longer evident.

The road safety effect of progressive (financial) penalties has not been directly researched, neither in the Netherlands nor abroad. A Dutch scenario analysis does show that a progressive penalty system could reduce the annual number of road deaths by 5% [56], also see SWOV fact sheet Progressive penalty systems in traffic.