A 1975 forecast to the 1985 traffic safety situation: What did we learn from an inaccurate forecast?.

Author(s)
Sivak, M.
Abstract

In 1975 the U.S. Department of Transport issued a forecast of the 1985 U.S. traffic safety situation. The forecast was based on projected 1985 values of several parameters. This forecast proved to be overly pessimistic, overestimating fatalities by 65%. Post-hoc predictions from three alternative models provided better fit to the 1985 data. These models included the degree of motorization model, the economic model and the model of the author.

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Publication

Library number
B 26220 (In: B 26218) /81 /83 / IRRD 809411
Source

In: Road users and traffic safety, Rothengatter & de Bruin (eds.), Assen, Van Gorcum, 1987, p. 13-25, 4 tab., 19 ref.

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This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.