Various studies have shown that a high proportion of accidents occur as a result of 'human error', and it is natural therefore in addressing the accident problem, to focus on the link between accidents and human factors. Traditionally, two main approaches have been used to explore this relationship: (i) in-depth accident studies, and (ii) epidemiological studies. This chapter concentrates on the latter. In section 2, the complexity of the problem and the nature of the data available for analysis is considered. In section 3 the statistical modelling process is described, and section 4 illustrates some results of accident modelling using studies which have been carried out recently at the UK Transport Research Laboratory. Finally in section 5, some important aspects of the modelling approach which require further investigation are raised. (A)
Abstract