The "Accidents and Traumatology" scenario project examines the way in which the number of injuries, deaths, handicaps and hospital admissions resulting from accidents might evolve up to the year 2000. The project covers traffic and occupational accidents, as well as home and leisure accidents. In the first place the study examines what would happen if the government were to refrain from any further policy initiatives. Secondly the study estimates the effect of measures that the government could take in the coming years, in the field of both accident prevention and medical care for accident victims. The approach was as follows. The study began with an analysis of the current scale of the problem of accidents and recent trends. A survey was then conducted of possible future developments by means of written questionnaires submitted to a large number of Dutch experts. On the basis of this survey long-range scenarios were constructed both with and without government intervention. Finally the consequences of these scenarios were calculated for the year 2000. (A)
Abstract