An earlier paper of the author (Journal of Trauma, 1988, Volume 28, Number 3, pp368-78) found that in identical crashes, 70-year olds are about three times as likely to die as 20-year olds. If populations of 70-year old and 20-year old drivers had identical crash experience, the 200% higher rate for the older drivers could be erroneously attributed to driver errors. It is important to evaluate how robust and repeatable the findings of the earlier paper are because they are so central to older driver understanding. This paper focuses on one of two questions in the earlier paper, namely, how does female compared to male risk change with increasing age. The present study builds on the earlier one by examining vehicle occupants killed in light trucks (not analysed in the earlier study), cars, and motorcycles. The earlier study used under 100,000 fatalities (1975-1983); the present study uses 123,678 (1984-1996) fatalities. As no specific data item can contribute to both studies, the present investigation is independent of the earlier one. Close agreement is found between the results of the two studies, solidifying the interpretation that findings are of a general nature and not dependent on specific data sets. In identical crashes, females from about age 10 to about age 55 are more likely to die than are males. However, there is no indication of a difference in risk dependent on sex for older drivers.
Abstract