Eighth-grade demographic and alcohol-related data in logistic regression predicted subsequent first-year driving crashes and offenses. For young men's crashes and offenses, good-fitting models used household situation (whether living with parents or not), parents' attitude about teen drinking (negative or neutral), and the interaction term. Young men who lived with both parents and reported negative parental attitudes regarding teen drinking were less likely to have crashes and offenses. For crashes involving young women, a good fitting model included friends' influence regarding alcohol. Young women who were not influenced by friends regarding alcohol were least likely to have crashes. No model predicting young women's offenses emerged. (A)
Abstract