The progress of the Tasmanian Road Safety Strategy 2007-2016, and the associated action plans, was reviewed through an analysis of crash data. It was found that the overall number of crashes per year in Tasmanian has remained fairly constant. However, the percentage of crashes that resulted in fatal or serious injuries has decreased by around five percent in the last decade. Several crash problem areas that had been identified and targeted with various road safety actions were investigated. The majority were found to have experienced a decrease in average crash rate from the period 2006-2010 to the period 2011-2014. Crashes involving older drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists were found to have an increased crash rate and so may warrant further attention in the future. In addition, only small progress towards reducing crashes involving motorcycles was achieved. The number of fatal and serious casualties over the 2001-2014 period was reviewed and, based on the current trend, it was considered unlikely that the 2010-2015 casualty reduction target of 20 percent would be achieved. A review of potential road safety countermeasures under the four areas of the Safe System (safer speeds, safer road users, safer vehicles, and safer roads) was conducted. Then, a model was developed to predict the number of fatal and serious casualties into future years and determine the likelihood that future targets will be achieved. Additionally, the model was used to explore the effect of several of the suggested road safety countermeasures and explore what combination of these countermeasures might be used to improve the chances of reaching future targets. The predicted number of fatal and serious casualties that would be prevented through the implementation of each of the modelled countermeasures is presented. Lowering speed limits showed the greatest potential for reducing casualties, followed by implementing measures to reduce the average age of Tasmania’s vehicle fleet and introducing further limitations to novice drivers. The effect of infrastructure treatments was also explored along with the considerable associated costs. Strategic directions, roll-out strategies, and appropriate casualty reduction targets for the 2017-2026 road safety strategy are then suggested based on the earlier exploration of crash trends and the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures. Potential strategic directions that focus on speed reductions or efforts that reduce the average age of the vehicle fleet are detailed, along with a third direction that utilises a mixture of measures. An exploration of the optimal infrastructure countermeasures to implement is also presented. A suitable method of setting (and tracking) a target for the desired reduction in fatal and serious casualties over the 2017-2026 road safety is presented. Based on the predicted effectiveness of the potential strategic directions, a range of reduction targets are then suggested with some commentary of how easily they could be achieved. Some commentary on the value of the road safety levy and alignment with the National Road Safety Strategy is also provided. (Author/publisher)
Abstract