Until recently, GDP growth has been a good predictor of both passenger and freight growth, leading to speculation that there might be an optimum transport intensity of the economy. This provides a potential objective for sustainable transport policies to try and reduce transport intensity. There are many examples of where specific transport provision has not led to the economic growth which was confidently expected, despite traffic growth which exceeded forecast levels. A report by the UK Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) is discussed and the lack of any general solution to the lack of expected economic growth, the influence of imperfect competition, the importance of distinguishing the redistributive effects from net impacts, and the negative effects on disadvantaged areas are outlined.
Abstract