The traffic death rate and per capita alcohol consumption in Ireland were found by Walsh to be correlated. However, a more detailedanalysis shows that changes in traffic deaths precede changes in alcohol consumption. Therefore, the correlation cannot reflect a causal relation. When a speculative variable is included, the relation becomes concurrent. The overall conclusion is that there is no credible evidence for a relation between per capita alcohol consumption andtraffic deaths. (A) This paper was published in a special issue of Accident Analysis and Prevention entitled 'Theoretical models for traffic safety' and for the covering abstract see IRRD 846002.
Abstract