REPEATED FEARS EXPRESSED IN RECENT TIMES HOLD THAT THE INCREASE IN THE MARKET SHARE HELD BY SMALLER VEHICLES COULD LEAD TO AN ALARMING INCREASE IN TRAFFIC VICTIMS. STATEMENTS OF THIS TYPE ARE, FOR THE MOST PART, BASED ON THE FATAL ACCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (FARS). AT FIRST GLANCE THESE STATISTICS WOULD SEEM TO CONFIRM THE FEARS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, MORE PRECISE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RELATIVELY HIGH PROPORTION OF TRAFFIC VICTIMS IN SMALL VEHICLES DURING VEHICLE-VERSUS-VEHICLE COLLISIONS HAS BEEN GENERATED IN THE FIRST INSTANCE BY THE MASS AGGRESSIVITY OF THE LARGER VEHICLES. AN INCREASED NUMBER OF SMALL VEHICLES IN THE FUTURE, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIMULTANEOUS WEIGHT REDUCTION IN LARGER VEHICLES, WOULD MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT A REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF FATAL INJURIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS ACCIDENT SEGMENT. WITH RESPECT TO SINGLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS, THE CURRENT STATISTICAL DATA PICTURE IS DOMINATED BY THE FACT THAT SMALL VEHICLES ARE PREDOMINANTLY USED BY YOUNG DRIVERS. IF ONE ASSUMES THAT AN INCREASING MARKET SHARE FOR SMALLER VEHICLES MUST NECESSARILY LEAD TO A HIGHER PROPORTION OF OLDER DRIVERS, THEN A RELATIVE REDUCTION IN TRAFFIC VICTIMS IN SMALL VEHICLES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ONE SURPRISING RESULT OF THIS PAPER IS THE FACT THAT OCCUPANTS IN VEHICLES OF THE MID-SIZE RANGE (1300-1500 KG) SEEM TO BE ESPECIALLY ENDANGERED.(A) FOR THE COVERING ABSTRACT OF THE CONFERENCE SEE IRRD 802816.
Abstract