UNITED STATES TRAFFIC FATALITIES DROPPED DRAMATICALLY FROM 49301 IN 1981 TO AN ESTIMATED 43721 IN 1982. FATALITIES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YR, AND FATALITIES PER MILE OF TRAVEL ARE THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED. A DECREASE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OCCURRED ONLY IN 1974, WHEN THE OIL CRISIS, THE NATIONAL 55 MPH SPEED LIMIT, AND DEPRESSED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS DISRUPTED THE NATION'S DRIVING HABITS. IN 1982 THE POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE AND TEST. THIS PAPER EXAMINES SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE 1982 CHANGES, INCLUDING ALCOHOL PROGRAMS, OCCUPANT RESTRAINT USE, DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, AND TRAVEL PATTERNS. EACH FACTOR'S EFFECT IS ASSESSED, THOUGH AVAILABLE DATA DO NOT PERMIT PRECISE QUANTIFICATION. IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FINDINGS FOR 1983 AND BEYOND ARE DISCUSSED.(Author/publisher).
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