The supply and demand of platinum-group metals (PGMs) are assessed through 2030. Recent increases in PGM demand and tight supplies from the two main sources have caused platinum and palladium prices to rise substantially. Future PGM demand driven by new technologies could significantly outstrip supplies. Five scenarios are based on different assumptions about demand for platinum in automotive fuel cells, demand for new vehicles in developing countries, the market penetration of vehicles with fuel cells and advanced catalytic converters, and several other factors. The scenarios suggest a midterm boom in the PGM market caused by increasing demand for platinum for fuel-cell vehicles and an increased use of advanced catalytic converters containing high amounts of PGMs, which could squeeze supplies between 2005 and 2020. This period would potentially be followed by a bust in PGM demand by 2030, as recycling exerts an influence on overall demand in developing countries. Demand for PGMs could outstrip supplies regardless of the market penetration rates of fuel-cell vehicles because of the demand for relatively high amounts of PGMs for advanced catalytic converters. Future research should focus on assessing costs associated with increasing PGM production and on PGM market dynamics.
Abstract