Assessment of the relationship between observed crashes and simulated conflicts at intersections. Master of Science Thesis Delft University of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering.

The goal of this M.Sc. thesis project is to investigate a traffic safety indicator calculated on the basis of micro-simulation. This safety indicator, TTC (time-to-collision), is based on the concept of a conflict situation; i.e. two vehicles approaching each other in such a way that if they do not change their course or make a preventing manoeuvre, they will crash. This project is incorporated into a research study from SWOV called Route choice in road networks. The latter deals with route choice from a safety perspective and aims at developing a method by which road authorities and traffic engineers can make use of micro-simulation for assessing, among others, road safety. The approach of the thesis does not aim at simulating traffic conflicts as they are in reality. Instead, a method is used that defines a conflict situation on the basis of data derived from a micro-simulation model. The research assessed whether there is a significant statistical relationship between the frequency of calculated conflicts and the actual number of crashes registered at unsignalized intersections. The research was limited to the traffic of motor vehicles. (Author/publisher)