RAND Europe has carried out a research project on car ownership modeling, called Audit of car ownership models, for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. This report presents a review of existing models for car ownership. The review contains a description and comparison of existing Dutch car ownership models and a review and comparison of recently developed models in the international literature and models used in practice. The report also includes recommendations on directions for potential development for improving the AVV car ownership models. The background of this audit is the desire of AVV to obtain information on the basis of which a well-founded decision can be made on the development of an improved car ownership model that can produce robust and sensible car ownership forecasts for all kinds of variants of variabilisation of the road tax (MRB) and car purchase tax (BPM). As part of this project, a number of policy advisers were interviewed about what types of outputs are required from a car ownership model, what should be the forecasting horizon and what should be the policy variables to be simulated. (Author/publisher)
Abstract