Abstract
Car ownership is known to be one of the most important determinants of mobility. Consequently much research has been carried out to analyse the complex relationships which lead to car ownership and car usage, and to develop forecasting models. However, recent experience has shown that these model cannot accurately predict changes in car ownership and car usage in situations when real incomes are lowering and the real costs of car usage are rising. Further research is needed to develop models which incorporate the dynamics of choice behaviour.