Inappropriate speed is the most common cause of road traffic accidents world wide. Thus, a necessity for speed management exists. The so-called SUNflower states (Sweden, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands) especially have spent significant effort on traffic safety policies -extremely successful in reducing mean speeds and speed variances using speed management techniques. However, the effect is still not sufficient for the achievement of real traffic safety, and as a result, there is currently a debate about the adoption of technical in-vehicle devices, one of which - called Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) -reduces vehicle speeds. The speed reduction is achieved either by warning the driver that he is speeding, by activating the accelerator pedal with a counterforce, or by reducing the fuel supply to the engine. The three methods of speed reduction are called version 1-3 respectively. There is an EG research project on speed adaptation policies on European roads (PROSPER), which deals with strategic proposals for the implementation of ISA. Selected results from PROSPER are included in this thesis. Two empirical surveys were undertaken in order to provide an overview of the basic conditions (e.g. social, economic and technical aspects) required for an ISA-implementation in Germany. Firstly, a stakeholder analysis and questionnaire using the Delphi-method was undertaken in two rounds. Secondly, a questionnaire-based survey with speed offenders was carried out, also in two rounds. In addition, the author created an expert pool consisting of 23 experts representing the most important fields of science and practice in ISA. The author interviewed most of the experts, either in person or by telephone. 12 experts also produced a detailed publication on their professional point of view of ISA. The two surveys and the professional comments on ISA led to four possible implementation scenarios for ISA in Germany. However, due to the strong political opposition, it is also conceivable that ISA will never be implemented, or that the implementation process will not commence until after 2015 (i.e. outside the aimed period of time). The scenarios are as follows: A) Implementation of version 1 by market forces with governmental monetary promotion. B) Implementation of version 2 by market forces supported by traffic safety institutions and image-making processes. C) Implementation of a modified version 3 by law for speed offenders only, in place of the current practice of withdrawing the driving licence. D) Implementation of various versions in Germany as a result of broad implementation of ISA in the SUNflower states. X) Non-implementation of ISA, leading to the necessity for alternative speed management measures. The author prefers scenario B because -ceteris paribus -it seems to be the most likely way to implement the technology. As soon as ISA reaches technical maturity , the implementation process must be accomplished by means of a three step approach. Marketing and image making -> Margin introduction -> Market penetration This implementation process for ISA by market forces could effect a percentage of at least 15% of all vehicles equipped with ISA until the year 2015.
Abstract