Benutten en Bouwen: travel by train will continue to grow. For the justification of the project ‘Benutten en Bouwen’, which scope is presented in the report ‘Sprong naar de toekomst’, a demand forecast has been made with the National Model System of the Netherlands (LMS). This forecast has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of the train schedule in the so called ‘Corridor model’ and whether the capacity meets the demand in the forecast. The forecast shows a large increase in the demand for train travel: an increase of 59% on an average working day in 2020 relative to 1995. The morning peak shows an even larger increase. Apparently, the disadvantage of the increase in the number of transfers is compensated by the increase in train frequency. Given the assumptions we consider this large increase in train usage as plausible. Another result of the study is that the ‘Corridor model’ concept appears to offer sufficient capacity to match the demand. There are however several developments in the real world practice that give cause to adjust the assumptions. This mainly concerns the financial feasibility, which is affected by the ratio of peak and off-peak travel and the increase of the reliability. When these costs are transferred to the operating company this will lead to higher fares and obviously a lower forecast. (Author/publisher) (Author/publisher)
Abstract