Current trends indicate that the transport system is moving away from environmental sustainability and that the major changes are necessary to make the system more compatible with environmental requirements. In this paper expert scenarios are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model'. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evalation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of transport. Next, both an expected and desired scenario are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts, which have been investigated by means of a survey. It is concluded that a sustainable transport system is certainly feasible, but that many barriers have to be overcome before this goal is achieved.
Abstract