The aim of the research was to study the possibilities for making a mathematical model in which the accident risk for vehicles leaving the road can be described, in particular if the arrangement of the hard shoulder can be a danger for the vehicle. Two available models were selected for further study. The Hall and Mulinazzi model from 1978 and the Labadie and Barbaresso model from 1982. Both models give scores to individual objects on the hard shoulder. As the scores increase, the risk for the severity of the result of confrontation with such an object will also be higher. The scores are determined by parameters (characteristics from traffic and the hard shoulder) and by the rigidity of the obstacle. A number of variables of these models are applied on 330 trajectories. On about 60 of these trajectories accidents have occurred. The results show that these models are not useful in the Dutch situation due to different parameters. However the models can give a good starting point for the development of a new model which fits in the Dutch situation. See also IRRD 829507.
Abstract