It is commonly assumed that freight transport growth is directly related to economic growth, and that reducing the former would therefore soon cause economic stagnation. This study examines these two propositions more closely. The study was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport. It is shown that the markets for consumer goods and for freight transport are only loosely related, and that the mutual impacts of changes in these markets are rather small. It is also shown that freight transport has become much cheaper and faster over the past few decades, and that a substantial proportion (a third to a half) of freight transport growth can be attributed to this cause. It is also clear that the government has ample scope for steering these supply factors and for 'delinking' freight transport growth from economic growth. For example, decisions on infrastructure investments can be based more on criteria of economic efficiency; infrastructure capacity scarcity can be alleviated using pricing policy (for instance, pay lanes instead of `user-group' lanes); and efficient pricing policies can be introduced on the basis of marginal social costs. On the last of these points, a differentiated kilometre charge holds out major potential. (A)
Abstract