This paper considers the potential for cycling to replace car travel for short trips in The Netherlands, with resulting environmental benefits. The Second Transport Structure Plan (SVV-2) aims to limit the growth of car traffic until 2010 to 35%, and also advocates bicycle traffic as one mode that could contribute to this. The Bicycle Master Plan aims to: (1) persuade more people to ride bicycles, and travel 30% more distance by this mode in 2010 than in 1986; (2) attract more people to public transport by improving cycling to and from railway stations; (3) dramatically reduce accidents to cyclists; and (4) substantially decrease the number of bicycle thefts. To estimate the potential for replacing car trips by cycle trips, it is necessary to: (1) analyse which car trips the bicycle could theoretically replace, by analysing the mobility patterns of car users; (2) find out how car users perceive their ability to replace car trips by cycle trips; and (3) find the effects of actual replacement of car trips by cycle trips. It was found that there was considerable potential for replacing short car trips by cycle trips, especially in cities. When such replacement occurs, it substantially reduces congestion and emission of pollutants.
Abstract