This research explores the factors contributing to the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle–motor vehicle accidents using a multinomial logit model. The model predicts the probability of four injury severity outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. The analysis is based on police-reported accident data between 1997 and 2002 from North Carolina, USA. The results show several factors which more than double the probability of a bicyclist suffering a fatal injury in an accident, all other things being kept constant. Notably, inclement weather, darkness with no streetlights, a.m. peak (06:00 a.m. to 09:59 a.m.), head-on collision, speeding-involved, vehicle speeds above 48.3 km/h (30 mph), truck involved, intoxicated driver, bicyclist age 55 or over, and intoxicated bicyclist. The largest effect is caused when estimated vehicle speed prior to impact is greater than 80.5 km/h (50 mph), where the probability of fatal injury increases more than 16-fold. Speed also shows a threshold effect at 32.2 km/h (20 mph), which supports the commonly used 30 km/h speed limit in residential neighborhoods. The results also imply that bicyclist fault is more closely correlated with greater bicyclist injury severity than driver fault. (Author/publisher)
Abstract