To evaluate the effectiveness of safety measures and to quantify the influence of exogeneous factors (traffic, economy, demography, etc) on the evolution of the frequence and the gravity of road accidents, one must think about modeling road risk by means of explicative models. From a bibliographic review of time-series models of the numbers of accidents and victims in France and abroad, we get general principles of modeling which rely on the analysis of the transportation system and on the probalistic analysis of the risk, and some model structures based on the risk triad: exposition - frequence - gravity. It is recommended to develop monthly economtric time-series models more able to provide explicative models of the short and medium term road risk for monitoring road unsafety.
Abstract