Two approaches to evaluating the effect of improved occupant protection in newer model passenger vehicles are presented along with a theoretical framework for evaluation. Several sets of accident data were examined to determine if occupants of newer vehicles sustain fewer or less severe injuries than occupants of older vehicles involved in similar types of crashes. The theoretical computations indicated that for moderate improvements, say a 10% reduction in the injury probability per accident, the total number of fatalities will continue to increase although at a reduced rate; this increase is due to growth in the vehicle population. For major improvements, on the order of a 50% reduction, the total number of fatalities and the vehicle fatality rate will drop. The data analysis indicated that newer, 1968-1969, model vehicles tend to be within the 10% improvements range compared to those vehicles manufactured in previous years.
Abstract