Many governments have subsidised fleet renewal schemes to stimulate consumer spending on cars during economic downturns. Subsidies are often linked to the environmental performance of vehicles, but how effective is accelerated fleet renewal in reducing emissions and can schemes be designed to improve the safety of cars on the road? This report examines three of the largest programmes introduced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, in France, Germany and the United States. It investigates the impact of 2.8 million transactions trading-in old cars for new on CO2 and NOx emissions and on road safety. It assesses value for money and identifies critical design elements for success in meeting environmental and safety objectives. The results of the analysis provide guidance for the design of any future schemes. This report was prepared by Dutch research and consultancy organisation TNO (Lead author Filipe Fraga) with research and input from the International Transport Forum (ITF). Safety impact analysis and annexes 1-3 were prepared by the Dutch Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV. The project was initiated by the International Transport Forum and the FIA Foundation under the aegis of the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI — http://www.globalfueleconomy.org) and started by looking at impacts of selected car fleet renewal schemes on CO2 emissions and traffic safety. The OECD Environment Directorate joined the project and extended the scope to also include NOx emission impacts and a qualitative assessment of impacts on emissions of particulate matter. (Author/publisher)
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