This paper analyses the future of car ownership and use in Asia. Because urban residents have higher than average incomes, car ownership is much higher in cities than in rural areas, although still low by Australian standards. Yet Asia's rapidly growing and densely populated cities already suffer serious traffic congestion, accidents, and air pollution, which higher car ownership can only exacerbate. It does not seem possible to improve traffic speeds by road construction on the scale needed for car-dominated transport systems. Asia's low oil reserves, lack of suitable alternative fuels, and its rising total greenhouse gas emissions, cast further doubt on a car-oriented future. A more suitable transport system for large, congested cities would stress heavy-rail, which is not only far more land-use and fuel efficient than car travel, but also will often be faster. For less congested cities, both large and small, busway systems, which are also both land-use and fuel efficient, show promise as a cost-effective solution. Also needed are urban road pricing, and encouragement of the already high levels of non-motorised travel in both urban and rural areas. (a).
Abstract