FMCSA’s core mission is to reduce crashes, injuries, and fatalities involving large trucks and buses. One important step in achieving this goal is to prioritize FMCSA enforcement resources on carriers that pose the highest future crash risk. The CSMS is FMCSA’s primary workload prioritization tool. This paper quantifies the effectiveness of the current CSMS methodology and intervention policy at identifying high safety risk carriers by explaining the modeling, analysis, and outcomes of the CSMS Effectiveness Test (ET). The ET model simulates CSMS results based on historical data. The basic structure of the ET is running CSMS results for carriers for a date in the past and then observing the subsequent crash involvement of the carriers. Analysis is then conducted to quantify the extent to which there are associations between particular CSMS results and future crash rate. This paper will show the ET crash risk results of three analyses: Analysis 1: Carriers Identified and Prioritized for CSA Interventions; Analysis 2: Carriers Identified as “High-Risk” for Congressionally Mandated Investigations; and Analysis 3: Crash Rate Trends by BASIC Percentile. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the current CSMS methodology and CSA intervention policy. This approach of applying CSMS ET results, however, can also quantify the impact of potential changes and provide insight into how to improve CSMS and CSA intervention policy. (Author/publisher)
Abstract