Modelling techniques have been used to investigate the effects of higher fuel prices, the introduction of fiscal restraint measures and the elimination of public transport fares in a medium-sized town and in a large city. The modelling studies were backed up where possible by independent evidence from studies of actual changes in travel costs. The studies indicate that higher fuel prices would favour public transport use, especially in large towns and in both types would save fuel: in smaller towns the increased bus travel is almost entirely due to the reduction in car ownership since those who still retain cars under high fuel prices continue to use them but for shorter trips. the study also indicates that the nation-wide decline in bus use would be reduced by higher fuel prices, though unrealistically high prices would be required to actually reverse the trend. Naturally, free bus travel would also encourage higher bus patronage, but most of this would be expected to come from walk, especially in smaller towns, though in large cities, where public transport is more competitive with car for some journeys, there would be a modest, but appreciable, shift from car to bus. High parking charges would favour public transport in larger towns but not so in the smaller ones where drivers would tend to shift to other, less restricted, destinations. The studies suggest that changes in the location of homes and jobs for each of the policies investigated would tend to operate in a direction which favoured the use of the private car and so militate against the policies implemented. (Author/publisher)
Abstract