Airline safety research affects policy recommendations, so the scale of a safety index creates important effects. Indices of safety and airline financial health, safety and airline size, safety and government oversight, and the public perception of safety are surveyed. Conclusions depend on data selection and statistical techniques. Aircraft accidents are infrequent and random, making any testing difficult. Overall, time progression and a rough airline size-safety relation, with important qualifiers, are correlated with safety. The literature survey raises recurrent questions that are analyzed furtherin statistical testing of recent aviation accidents. National Transportation Safety Board accident investigations report data for 1966 to 1990. Statistical tests measure the effects of deregulation, technological progress, Congress, and FAA in accident prevention. Deregulation and FAA have had positive effects on airline safety above andbeyond technological and time improvements, though FAA faces diminishing returns.
Abstract