Plans for the improvement and development of the international road networks in Central and Eastern Europe should be based on transport demand forecasts taking into account changing political and economic conditions. In the last years, numerous road traffic forecasts were prepared by various authors. In this paper an attempt is made to compare results of selected forecasts with emphasis on road traffic. Review of these forecasts has shown that there are great differences in envisaged changes in international transport demand. In extreme cases, annual growth rates for total road traffic vary from 3 to 12 per cent. Although modal split is an open question, it is very probable that road traffic volumes will be growing much faster than the total transport volumes even with "rail-friendly strategy". Systematic surveying of traffic combined with advanced transport demand modelling are necessary if forecasts are to be more reliable. (A) The German title of this article is: Vergleichanalyse der Internationale Verkehrsprognosen in Mittel und Ost Europa.
Abstract