THIS PAPER CONSIDERS, BY MODELLING, WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IF MINIBUSES COMPETE WITH EXISTING LONDON TRANSPORT SERVICES AND FARES, AND ALSO THE SITUATION WHERE, IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LOST REVENUE, THE LT SERVICES ARE REDUCED. TWO DIFFERENT MODELLING APPROACHES WERE CONSIDERED: (I) SIMPLE MODAL CHOICE, APPROPRIATE TO THE SITUATION WHERE THE TWO TYPES OF SERVICES ARE PHYSICALLY SEPARATE AND (II) MODAL CHOICE AT THE ROUTE: THE TRAVELLER COMPARES THE GENERALISED COST OF HIS JOURNEY BY THE BUS WHICH HAS ARRIVED WITH THAT BY THE OTHER TYPE OF BUS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXTRA TIME HE WOULD EXPECT TO WAIT FOR IT. MINIBUSES ARE ASSUMED TO BREAK EVEN FINANCIALLY AND THE NET COMMUNITY BENEFIT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF MINIBUS SERVICES IS CALCULATED. A DETAILED SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS OF THIS INVESTIGATION INDICATES THAT SERVICES RUN ENTIRELY BY MINIBUSES ARE UNLIKELY TO COVER THEIR COSTS, BUT MINIBUSES RUNNING ON THE SAME ROUTES AS EXISTING BIG BUS SERVICES IN LONDON MAY DO WELL AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SOCIAL BENEFIT.
Abstract