The purpose of this paper is to discuss the potential role and application, in the context of EC policy needs, of an operational, comprehensive transport forecasting model, working at the European level. The forecasting model was developed in the SCENES 4th Framework project, and this paper is focused on the substance of the forecasting mechanism, and its potential for practical use in the policy making process. The paper comprises three main parts. Firstly the structure and main characteristics of the combined passenger and freight model are described, together with some base year validation results. The results of a series of Scenario tests to a 2020 forecast year are then reported. The third part of the paper is a wider discussion of the potential application of such a Europe-wide model in the policy environment of the EC, laying out the possible use, and indeed the limitations imposed by modelling at such a scale, and with limited data. Possible model improvements, as more comprehensive and consistent data becomes available are then outlined.
Abstract