Within the Second Transport Structure Plan, the SVV II, a policy package is outlined for the restriction and management of the growth of car traffic and the resulting congestion problems. One component of this package was group of measurements to exploit better the existing infrastructure. The Ministry has already started initiatives to implement traffic management measures. One of these initiatives was the set up of a project by the Adviesdienst Verkeer en Vervoer (AVV) of Rijkswaterstaat, with the aim to develop a well-based strategy for the development and implementation of management measures. One component of this BIV project was the development of a strategic forecasting tool, the Congestieverkenner, which has as one of its aims the forecasting of accessibility and congestion in the short and medium term. The Congestieverkenner makes for its forecasts to a large extent use of the Dutch National Model System. The National Model System has been changed on a number of places in order to bring in the required level of detail and to make the Time-of-Day module operational. A new assignment procedure QBLOK has been developed, starting from the existing assignment algorithm QNET. One important aspect of QNET is taking account of the inflow from preceding links during the link time calculation. The inflow is restricted when there is congestion on the preceding links. In QBLOK is this algorithm further extended and improved. This report contains a description of both the changes to the National Model System and the development of QBLOK. During the project first estimates were needed for the year 1988. Forecasts have been produced using an earlier version of the software. The results of these runs are also described in this report.
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