Counterfactual analysis of urban transport development : if we knew 50 years ago what we know today about the price-relevant costs of urban traffic, could urban development have taken a different turn?

The marginal costs of road traffic relevant for pricing are considered for Sweden with a view to decreasing the system-external marginal costs of urban road transport. These include noise and barrier effects, accidents in urban areas and accident costs. Accident externality charges are calculated. A counterfactual analysis of urban development with optimal road pricing and regulation is outlined. Over the past 50 years, car transport has replaced foot and bicycle transport in urban areas in Sweden. The accident rate in Sweden 50 years ago was considerably higher than today and a road pricing scheme to cover accident externality costs would give a cost of 0.85-1.0 Euros/km, which would have discouraged car use in urban areas. It is suggested that the majority of the road network would be reserved for pedestrians and cyclists, with the sparse motor roads used for freight and taxis. Calculation of the optimum road price is discussed. If in addition underpriced road space for parking was absent and parking provision was not included in the planning system, it is considered that long-term parking in the central city would be prohibitively expensive for private car users. For the covering abstract of this conference see ITRD E128114.