In this study, an analysis has been given of the influence of telecommunication on traffic and transport and, subsequently, on energy and environment. On the basis of three scenarios it has been found that in the years 2000 and 2025, both substitution and generation effects can be foreseen. Effects of telecommunication decrease traffic and transport up to 15% in 2025, for instance by substitution of commuter traffic, teleshopping, home education. On the other hand an increase up to 10% may be expected, for instance due to spending of leisure. Hence, the net-effect is a reduction of 5%, approximately. The most important secondary effects are energy saving and reduction of harmful emissions. There are also positive side-effects, such as a decrease in noise nuisance, decreased fragmentation of nature and landscape, less car accidents. The actual effect of telecommunication on traffic and transport, though, is larger than is suggested by the 5% mentioned earlier, since substitution effects mainly occur during rush-hours and generation effects outside rush-hours. This is of importance for instance in relation with traffic congestion, future planning of infrastructure and environmental impact in urban areas. Further investigation would be required to analyse the possibilities of reinforcing the substitution effects, simultaneously weakening the generation effects. (a) for an english version of the extensive summary see B 29999 fo (IRRD 830651).
Abstract