Since the beginning of the nineteen seventies the annual number of fatally injured cyclists in the netherlands has been decreasing. This declining trend seems now to be ended, but taking into account the fluctuations in the annual numbers there is not an increase. The share of cyclists of the total annual number of fatally injured road users shows a small increase at first, but now seems to be steady. The number of registered injured cyclists increased much in the early seventies but that increase is now a little bit less. On the basis of the present situation and with the available information the traffic safety of the cyclists in 1990 is estimated. The total annual traffic of cyclists will increase by 25%, the risk of injury or fatality will be decreased by 10%, which results in an increase of 8% the number of deaths or injured in such a way that hospitalisation is needed. Changes in the modal split, changes of the infrastructure, changes in the behaviour in traffic and modifications in bicycle design are taken into account.
Abstract