During the last two years, a project group at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, called Questa, has built different future scenarios relevant to the development of mobility between now and 2030. These scenarios play an important role in the process of the accomplishment of the new Transport Structure Plan, or so-called National Traffic and Transport Plan (NVVP). In the first part of this process, the scenarios have a function in the generation of new policy options. Later on in the process, the scenarios can be used for testing the effectiveness of the new policy options under different conditions. Because mobility is an issue with interfaces throughout society, the scenarios are based on uncertain societal developments with a strong impact on mobility, for instance, in the field of economy, demography and social-cultural development. In 1997, the authors already described the scenario building process (See IRRD 493610 (see C 11805). Therefore, this paper only gives a very short insight into some methodological issues. The focus in the paper is on the actual scenario description. Also, some information is given about the use of the Questa scenarios in the first steps of the process of the NVVP accomplishment. (A)
Abstract