This article discusses the future development of road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. It has two main objectives: 1) to judge the feasibility of the policy targets in the Ministry of Transport's Mobility Paper, i.e. the maximum number of fatalities and in-patients in 2010 and 2020, when the current policy is followed; and 2) to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. Baseline prognoses for 2010 and 2020 were made, taking the unchanged continuation of the current road safety policy as a starting point and using four different mobility scenarios from a comprehensive study about the macroeconomic development of Dutch society until 2040. These prognoses were adjusted so as to take the effects of road pricing into account. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it is doubtful whether the policy targets for the maximum number of fatalities in 2010 and 2020 (750 and 580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures that were suitable for calculating their effects. The estimations show that it is very probable that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can be reached. However, more additional new measures are needed to reach a target of 500 fatalities. (Author/publisher)
Abstract