The arguments in favour of decoupling transport from economic growth are outlined. The concept of decoupling spans a wide range of very different notions. Economic growth is considered as gross domestic product (GDP), although adding the value of manufacturing industry (including construction) and of imports would provide a more precise measure. Appropriate indicators of goods transport growth are discussed and total tonnes per kilometre is considered the best indicator. Data are given from 1980-2001 on the development of road freight transport performance intensity, on rail freight transport performance intensity, on vehicle mileage intensity in road freight transport in the 15 EU and 5 Eastern European countries. The development of all mode goods transport performance and of real GDP in the 15 EU member states is depicted and similar information is provided for 5 Eastern European countries. All mode transport intensity in the five Eastern European countries is substantially higher than in the EU, but declining. In the EU there is no sign of the desired decoupling of economic and transport performance growth in the last two decades. Transport intensity trends differ widely between countries in wester Europe, with low levels in Ireland and Switzerland and high levels in Spain and Finland. This may be because Spain and Finland are large countries with low population densities and have few major centres, separated by large distances. It is forecast that transport intensity will fall sharply in the 5 Eastern European countries but that no decoupling will occur in the EU. Measures suggestd that could be taken in the EU to try to achieve decoupling include changing mobility habits, car-sharing, parking space rationing, road pricing in towns and cities, fuel cell initiatives, high-speed trains and road pricing for goods transport. For the covering abstract for this conference see ITRD E128114.
Abstract