The European Commission has suggested that greater efforts are required to gradually decouple freight transport from economic growth. The feasibility of this decoupling is considered in the light of the continued growth of road freight transport and the trend towards the transport of finished goods rather than raw materials. Forecasting freight transport growth using models is discussed. The connection which existed in the 1980s between freight transport demand and economic activity was far less strong in the 1980s than in the 1990s. Factors influencing international goods flows are discussed. World trade has on average grown faster than world gross domestic product. The emergence of worldwide commerce on the internet has led not only to a greater need for international logistics systems but also to important procedural changes. Problems with capacity, particulary on roads, are discussed in relation to whether a modal shift can be achieved towards rail and water transport. Transport prices that internalised all external costs would increase prices which would have a negative effect on overall goods flows. It is considered that complete decoupling of demand for freight transport from economic activity and international trade is not attainable. The development and implementation of a scientific tool that will enable systematic assessment of the two-way relationship between economic activity and freight transport is considered urgent. For the covering abstract for this conference see ITRD E128114.
Abstract