This paper formulates seven hypotheses about the scientific psychological prognosis of future driving problems, which are based on empirical information and clinical experience. Several detailed comments are made and a conclusion is drawn, for each of the following hypotheses: (1) the relationship between alcohol misuse, alcohol dependence, and drinking and driving problems is very important in the expert assessment of a convicted drinking driver; (2) the negative effects of chronic alcohol misuse, that result in misuse tolerance, are not equivalent to dependence on alcohol; (3) in expert examinations, it is impossible to demonstrate physical signs of withdrawal to determine the presence of physical dependence; (4) biological aspects of alcohol tolerance and biochemical effects of alcohol consumption are eventually more important for predicting behaviour than the relationship between genetic disposition and the risk of becoming alcohol-dependent; (5) a `contented abstinence' from alcohol is evidenced by `controlled dealings' with alcohol, rather than by a pause in drinking or a forced abandonment of alcohol consumption; (6) an acceptable positive traffic prognosis is more likely from evidence of `contented abstinence' than by determining alcohol dependence; (7) absence of past or future alcohol problems should not be deduced from current absence of abnormal organic and chemical findings.
Abstract