It is generally acknowledged that communities go through "life cycles" which, over a period of 20 to 30 years, may result in changes in environmental, social and economic impacts. The question of how much, where and when in relation to the provision of public infrastructure is a perennial problem. This paper specifically details the use of demographic data in a computer spreadsheet model to quantify the variations in trip generation rates from residential areas over a long time period. Australian Bureau of Statistics census data together with Department of Transport's Home Interview Survey (1991-1992) data was used as input to derive a life cycle "demand wave" produced by a community over a time period. The spreadsheet model generates a range of trip rates and shows how, over time, a "demand wave" is generated. It is then shown how trip rates can be influenced by planning controls to smooth demand to achieve a relatively even "demand line". The benefits of being able to, firstly evaluate a planning strategy and then finally achieve some degree of consistency in demand for local infrastructure over time, are shown to be substantial. (A)
Abstract