Deterrence theory postulates that certainty, severity and celerity of punishment reduce deviant behavior. With drunk driving certainty of detection is in fact a two-step-process: first, the driver has to be stopped, second, the police has to notice his drunkenness. Therefore, in discussing certainty of detection as a countermeasure against driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI), frequency and efficiency of controlling both have to be taken into account. In an experimental context the relationship between the two factors was analysed. Subjects varied. Conditions of 20% and 80% probability for each factor resulted in 4 treatment groups to which subjects were randomly assigned. After the game subjects estimated probability of detection and rated their competence in the game. Subjects overestimated low probabilities of detection, Also, estimation of subjective risk was higher when controls were more efficient. (A)
Abstract