Development of a crash prediction model for rural roads in NSW.

This paper presents the tools and results achieved from the prediction of the safety performance of rural highways in New South Wales, Australia. The accident rate prediction model setup consists of a series of base models relying on a plethora of roadway parameters. The accident rates computed provide a comparative threshold of the average safety performance of a roadway for a set of assumed nominal or base conditions. The accident modification factors for rural highways that affect the accident rates for the effects on safety for roadway segments are lane width, shoulder width, horizontal and vertical curves, driveway density, turning lanes, passing lanes and pavement type. Rural road accidents tend to be scattered and can rarely be identified for remedial treatment. In addition, in rural sites, traffic and intersection densities, and therefore the opportunity for traffic conflicts, are often lower than in urban areas. The derivation of accident rates for rural highways relies heavily on the quality of accident data. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E208431.