Pavements represent the largest single area of investment in highway transport infrastructure. Like any large investment, they deserve good management. This is particularly so, because pavements are also subjected to fairly rapid deterioration. A total pavement management system (PMS) consists of a coordinated' set of activities, all directed toward achieving the best value for the available public funds in providing and operating smooth, safe and economical pavements. The measurement and prediction (modeling) of pavement performance is a cornerstone of any PMS for both network and project level, because it is necessary for both the financial planning/budgeting and pavement life cycle economic evaluation. A pilot PMS for Turkey's roads has been carried out for 72 hot-mix asphalt concrete sections within the Ankara region, The necessary data (including FWD deflections, surface distress, roughness, etc. were collected and evaluated. A follow-up to the network project was a study to develop a project level performance prediction model for Turkey's roads by using the network data. The results of the following study are reported in this paper. In one part of the study, a relationship between PQI (Pavement Quality Index) vs. cumulative traffic loading and age is developed by using multivariate linear regression analysis after classification of the sections according to thickness (EGT), subgrade' strength (MK) and cumulative traffic loading (ESAL). In another part, a set of performance curves in terms of PSI vs. ESAL are drawn for different SN (structural number) values. These SN values are calculated by running the software DARWin of AASHTO'93 for Turkey's condition representing different compositions for different traffic and different subgrae strengths. In the third part of the study, the OPAC (Ontario Pavement Analysis or! Costs) performance model which is based on a relationship between subgrade deflection and pavement deterioration, is modified for Turkey's roads which are extremely high trafficked when compared to Ontario's. In order to achieve more reliable performance curves, it is recommended that all these approaches should be further verified by means of periodic data collection and evaluation. (A)
Abstract