This paper offers some first analyses and reflections on the probable consequences recent social transformations in Eastern Europe will have on its economy, with particular reference to the transport economy and to passenger transport. Hypotheses are developed on probable economic development and particular attention paid to the consequences of German reunification. The current transport situation in Eastern Europe is briefly examined. A scenario for the development of long-distance passenger transport to the year 2010 is then built up on the basis of a projection of population trends and economic development. Assumptions are made that behaviour patterns, transport consumption and transport policy will be the same as in Western countries. Attention is focused on traffic flows between West Germany and East Germany and other countries belonging to the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon). Significant shifts in travel patterns are predicted with increases in traffic loading particularly in Germany. The authors suggest that pressure on infastructure and damage to the environment will be substantial problems.
Abstract