Teenagers were surveyed by telephone every 6 months from their freshman to senior high school years (N=911). Self-reported crash involvements and citations were examined for each teenager’s first year of licensure and first 3,500 miles driven. Based on survival analysis, the risk of a first crash during the first month of licensure (0.053) was substantially higher than during any of the next 11 months (mean risk per month = 0.025). The likelihood of a first citation during the first month of licensure (0.023) also was higher than during any of the subsequent 11 months (mean risk per month = 0.012). Similarly, when viewed as a function of cumulative miles driven, the risk of a first crash or citation was highest during the first 500 miles driven after licensure. Fewer parental restrictions (e.g., no night-time curfew) and a lower grade point average were associated with a higher crash risk. Male gender, a lower grade point average, and living in a rural area were associated with a higher citation rate. Graduated licensing, including an intermediate licensing phase, is recommended to deal with the extreme risk associated with the first few months or miles of teenagers’ driving. Regardless of any positive effects of maturation, limiting exposure to high-risk driving situations is important for both 16- and 17-year-old novice drivers. (A)
Abstract