An econometric analysis of motor vehicle traffic crashes and macroeconomic factors. Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.

Motor vehicle traffic crashes are avoidable. In 1990 there were almost 43,000 minor injuries, 8,500 serious injuries and 729 fatal injuries on New Zealand roads. Historically, there have been large fluctuations in these numbers. Policies have been introduced aimed at reducing the number of motor vehicle traffic crashes (MVTCs). However, economic conditions may have a greater influence on MVTCs. This study investigated the association between economic factors and traffic crashes over time. Econometric models for the number of fatal crashes (crashes) and fatal crashes per 100,000 kilometres travelled (crash rate) were developed. Economic and social factors in the models included the unemployment rate, gross domestic product, interest rates, total population, the proportion of 15-24 year old males, the size of the vehicle fleet, the proportion of motorcycles in the vehicle fleet, and alcohol consumption. Variables representing major events such as the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979, changes in the open road speed limit, and mandatory seatbelt wearing were also included. Additional models were developed that included alcohol and petrol taxation variables for a shorter period. (Author/publisher)